The end of Labour dominance in Wales
Wales has entered a new political world as Labour declines from dominance towards only local significance, to be replaced by either Plaid Cymru or the Conservatives as the political powers of the future.
Mrs Thatcher always dreamed of having the equivalent of a rugby team of MPs returned from Wales. However, she never got beyond 14. But what the handbag-wielding slayer of socialism never managed to achieve now seems within easy reach of Nicholas Bourne, the party's Welsh leader. Although last month's Assembly election produced only one extra seat for the Tories, in six other seats, the parties stand within an ace of victory.
For there is no doubt that Wales is now entering a radically new political situation. On one side of the political theatre stand Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives - while Plaid currently holds more seats, the Tories are within percentage points of overtaking them and sweeping into the lead.
On the other side stands the Labour Party, watching its age-long hegemony flooding down the drain. Admittedly, Labour lost only four seats over 2003, but far more important was the almost total disappearance of that once blood-red heartland in the South from which they dominated the entire country, and indeed Britain, as well.
Not long ago, Labour politically controlled the southern Valleys. That domination — measured by attracting at least 50% of the vote - has now almost vanished; it remains in only two seats, Torfaen and Ogmore, compared with 10 four years ago (and five in 1999, when Plaid surged forward).
I am not choosing fluke figures or years for my judgement; the trend in Labours vote in Wales as been an almost continuous decline for almost 40 years, albeit with occasional, and temporary, revivals. In 1966, for instance, Labour attracted 61% of the vote; last month, it was 32%. Before 1974, the vote was always above 50; afterwards, hardly ever.
In every constituency election from 1999, Labour has seen a percentage decline twice as often as it has experienced an increase.
Once upon a time, the Liberal Democrats could dream of slowly building a Labour-replacement strategy. But their failure to produce the expected advance this year leaves that dream in tatters - except in big-town local government, where committed grass-roots work is slowly building a powerful electoral machine.
This year seems to be seeing Labour at last accepting that its almost century-long dominance of Welsh politics is over. The party's share of the vote fell seriously from 38% to only 32. The Conservatives, at 22.5% (up from 19.5) were within spitting distance. Plaid Cymru was lagging only infinitesimally at 22.3% (up from 20.4). The Lib Dems slipped slightly to 13.6% (from 13.9). In seats, Labour now holds 26 (compared with 29 at dissolution); Plaid 15, (previously 12), the Tories 12 (previously 11), while the Lib Dems are unchanged at six.
The battle has now opened between Plaid and the Tories over which party will replace Labour. According to detailed statistics from May, victory should almost certainly go to the Conservatives.
But there is a lot of validity in Plaid spokesman Alun Shermer's point that May could prove a flash in the pan. The Tories have reached their maximum; the advance they had predicted (to overtake Plaid) was not produced; Mr Bourne has shot his bolt; and the next Assembly election will be fought against a strong British background, with the Welsh electorate reacting with their votes against Tory leader Mr Cameron's policies in No 10.
Tory leader Nick Bourne accepts that his party will be more affected by travails at Westminster than Plaid. "But the likelihood of a Cameron government becoming unpopular only 18 months after they have won an election so as to lose votes at the next Assembly poll is extremely unlikely," said Mr Bourne. "And our performance in Wales is not just about the tide from London; it is also about the policies we put forward in Wales." And about the pro-coalition frame of mind adopted by the Welsh party, more so, he says, than by other parties. Which indeed seems the only political way forward, as Mr Bourne can foresee no time-frame with an election which makes the Tories the majority (rather than the largest) party. The list of Tory wins is, indeed, very much a re-hash of the seats they held in 1983 — basically, Anglo-Wales in the North-east and South-east, with the predictable addition of suburbanising Gower.
Were this to happen, Plaid would be in severe trouble (although any precise prediction is hugely complicated by the existence of 20 regional seats to balance any electoral unfairness resulting from the constituency share-out). Plaid must surely realise they face a challenge. But they respond that the party has professionalised enormously since the previous election. The specific targeting of seats hasreplaced the previous "scattergun" approach. Only in Carmarthen West did the approach fail, and then by the narrowest of margins.
For 2011, Plaid talk of extra possible wins in Preseli (currently 14% behind the victor) and ClwydWest (7%) within their traditional western heartlands; Caerffili (4% gap) and neighbouring Islwyn (16%) in the more-swinging parts of the Valleys. Also, critically, Neath (8% behind, and where Bethan Jenkins, the newly-elected South West AM, has made her new home giving Gwenda Thomas, now 65, preliminary notice that it would be advisable for her to step down next time). And then there's Cynon Valley, so nearly won in 1999 after a number of rip-roaring years of local campaigning.
But activity eventually faded away in Cynon Valley, and the problem may have been the same as in much ofWales outside the linguistic heartlands: lack of members. Plaid won Rhondda in 1999 with so few members that the total does not bear mentioning, and the same applies to the temporary control it won of Rhondda Cynon TafF council.
Creating anything resembling a mass party is the lesson that the Nationalists have still to learn. In today's world it's a problem faced by all parties and has been best faced up to by the Lib Dems with their strategy of targeting voters from the pavement up. They admit it can be a slow process, but the end result can be devastating for the other parties. The Lib Dems' control of council wards in Cardiff has propelled Jenny Randerson into one of the safest Assembly seats in Wales: she attracts more than 50% of the vote in Cardiff Central.
The party is now dreaming of repeats in Newport East and Swansea West. In the meantime Mike German, the high priest of proportional representation, complains that it is his party which suffered worst last month from its vagaries: "We are the most under-represented party in the Assembly, winning 15% of the vote, but only 10% of the seats," he said. |
Blogs 
