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Is it all rosy in the Coalition Garden?

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Is it all rosy in the Coalition Garden?

The first four months have been too little to judge the strength of the Labour-Plaid coalition in Cardiff Bay. But it has been just enough for First Minister Rhodri Morgan to wonder aloud whether the coalition is strong enough to last.
When senior figures in Plaid start mouthing similar concerns about the ability of their One Wales deal with Labour to see out the year - never mind the four years it was signed for - perhaps the peaceful agreements which have characterised the months since July are in truth an aberration which cannot continue.
The issue Mr Morgan was worried about was the budget for next year, for agreement by the Assembly by the end of the year.
"The true test of the coalition is can we agree a budget. I am quite confident that we can," Mr Morgan told a press briefing in the Senedd (the building alongside the water of Cardiff Bay, which houses the main debating chamber). Can the coalition continue? "I am confident, but I do not want to be overconfident."
Which is all well and good if taken by itself. But what senior Plaid officials volunteer doesn't exactly bolster the First Minister's hopes.

A senior Plaid adviser seemed almost over-keen to emphasise how litde cash would be available for that budget. The cost of the programmes contained in the 42-page accord has never been released, but a close observer of the policies said they would be "expensive".
The party adviser said, "I could not emphasise how tight the budget is. Over die next three years, spending can increase by 1.8%; for the next year, it will be only 0.7%." That compares with 3% or so in recent years.
Helen Mary Jones, winner again in Llanelli, agreed readily with die gloomy version of Mr Morgans dioughts. She said, "We all are [taking a gloomy view]. There is less money that we hoped for. That will be the problem."
Yet there is an equally important side to any coalition -the relationships between its leading figures. "We have learned to be terribly nice to each other," said Mr Morgan of Deputy First Minister leuan Wyn Jones. Individuals widi different political beliefs had learnt how to sacrifice certain political points in order to work together to achieve a stable government which possessed "a purpose, of moving things forward". After years of opposing each other, in Parliament and dien in the Assembly, "we are learning to trust each other; that is the big thing; it is a new experience; we have learned to trust".
His Plaid deputy said he had learned one attribute — "that of perfect patience" in gaining agreement (and presumably his own way). Mind, Mr Jones gained much experience in earlier years as Plaid business manager in die Commons, when he hammered out agreements and won concessions from the other Westminster political parties.
Nearly all sweetness and light? No, is the straight answer. Asked whether there had been any disagreements, Mr Morgan showed the tightest of lips possible and refused to answer, although the question was asked direct to his face, with no interruption in sight.
Earlier, Mr Morgan had said he had known "nothing" of the clash between the two parties about the nifty footwork displayed by Jane Davidson, Minister for Sustainability and Housing. One part of her original job was to take over from Rural Affairs Minister Carwyn Jones responsibility for both the controversial round-Wales coastal path - now being created - and for the Countryside Council for Wales.
When a proper Rural Affairs post was created, it was assumed that the incumbent would naturally assume both these responsibilities. But Elin Jones's protests were in vain. The former vice president of the Ramblers' Association (Wales) - who presumably fully supports, to farmers' fury, the RA demand for a path which is a "swathe" wide, rather than the traditional six feet — would not give way.
But Ms Davidson has form on disputes with fellow ministers. The Liberal Democrats recall an early rumpus with dien-Economic Development Minister Andrew Davies over responsibilities. "We always assumed that Andrew was to blame, but it now seems not," said the Lib Dem.
The two leaders of the new coalition started instilling die rules of twenty-first century Welsh politics into the political reflexes of their followers early on, and they all seem to have taken them on board. Rosemary Buder, (Newport West), one of the first to try and chew a lump out of the new Transport Minister, one IW Jones, has not repeated her effort - although there could be reason, with local sources talking of the direct Ebbw Vale to Newport railway line not reopening until 2012, if ever (the Cardiff link opens around Christmas).
It is from his own supporters in the country that Mr Jones may expect trouble, with his emphasis during the formal debate on the new coalition's policies on the extent of "compromise" that he has had to adopt. "Sometimes we will have to take up different positions from those we have taken in the past," he said.
To ensure the electorate remembers some of the political positions that Plaid has had to drop or adapt, the Lib Dems helpfully listed them in die motion for debate - the lack of talk about closing the higher education funding gap with England (chiefly necessary to aid top-grade university research and staff recruitment); ditto, re-axing council tax;introducing single transferable voting for council elections to ensure that the party which won most votes came closest to power; where are the extra police officers Plaid called for in its election manifesto? - what about priority for arts development? - student debt? - and where is die ban on nuclear power development in Wales?
Kirsty Williams, (Lib Dem, Brecon and Radnor), claimed (no doubt with two eyes on gaining extra votes in 2011), "Plaid Cymru has dropped its policies and has gone a fair way towards dropping its identity."
A more damning criticism came from colleague Peter Black, South West: "This is not the reforming government that we might have expected." Jenny Randerson (Cardiff Central), used a phrase that will be oft repeated: "The only question to be answered today is whether all Plaid Cymru Assembly Members are fully paid-up kpdogs of Rhodri Morgan."
In the future - when things start going wrong (again) with the Welsh NHS, you can expect to hear a lot more about the left-wing ideology which the opposition say Plaid has imposed on the coalition. In a clear move towards a totally-State run service, Plaid has added a ban on the use of private hospitals for NHS patients by 2011. All very well — unless you are patient who has benefited from the Second-Offer Scheme to enter a vacant private bed, possibly in England, for an operation which the NHS could not provide in time. And Plaid even has doubts about the NHS making use of the diird (voluntary) sector. If only a purely centrally-run state sector, shielded from all competition, could be proved to work!
Of course, the Liberal Democrats have little right to be over-critical of the One Wales deal. After all it was dial party which sank hopes of a non-Labour coalition when the national executive met in Llandrindod. Who organised die demonstration? Although she denies it, die finger is firmly pointed at Kirsty Williams. Asked by CAMBRIA, Ms Williams mumbled initially that she didn't really know much about it, before brightening up and saying boldly, "Not guilty, not guilty!" Others in the party prefer a different tale. Another AM described her as "die woman of the night", adding that there was no doubt she had organised it.
The executive fumbled the greatest issue they have ever been faced with by forgetting about the nation, thinking only about how their individual constituencies would fare with regard to the sort of attack the main local opposition would mount.
And the likely reason that Presiding Officer Lord Elis-Thomas refused to delay the plenary at which Labour was to propose a coalition with Plaid, in order to accommodate a planned Lib Dem weekend about-turn, was that he had already given a verbal promise about his planned plenary to other party leaders.
In other words, the Lib Dems missed the boat.
Clive Betts

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